Tsuki's Law
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There's a book written by someone who "loves gambling" but understands "numbers and probabilities" that recommends "it's better to bet on fewer things and be bold than to bet on everything.!" This was a perspective that I didn't have, so I was impressed.
This is because the law of large numbers makes it easier for returns to follow the expected value the more thinly and widely they are spread. As you know, gambling always has a house edge, so the expected value is always negative, which is why "spreading thinly and widely" is a logical act of "increasing the certainty of losing". When you get used to it, the expected value converges to negative
The more thinly and widely you spread, the more returns follow the expected value That's why there's a greater chance of making a profit by betting big on the first try.
Impressions after reading
Even so, since the world is definitely accelerating, it's better for Capitalism. not to stray, and since gambling with a house edge is always negative in terms of expected value, it's righteous to aim for a one-chance win. /icons/hr.icon
# The Law of Tsuki: The Science of "How to Bet" and "Winning and Losing" (PHP Shinsho)
### Metadata
- Title: The Law of Tsuki: The Science of "How to Bet" and "Winning and Losing" (PHP Shinsho)
### Highlights & Notes
The "gambling method that definitely loses" is somewhat technically called "reducing variance and promoting the manifestation of the effect of the law of large numbers as much as possible."
People who are not given enough opportunities for education and whose income levels are lower than average tend to fall victim to this advertisement. As for why there are "pros" in blackjack, it is because the players can get ahead of the dealer, which means that more than 100% of the money the players bet can be returned to them (this is called "expected value exceeding 100%").
Currently, casinos ask people they consider "professional card counters" to leave the casino.
The handicapper who creates the odds is a professional who has contracted with the casino, and this handicapper creates the handicaps in a more elaborate and systematic way than in Japan. In the case of baseball, the computer inputs not only the starting pitcher of the team, but also the overall condition of the team, the stadium, the weather, and even the compatibility between the scheduled starting pitcher and the umpire on the day of the game, and makes the decision.
They are not professional gamblers. By the way, they work more than 10 hours a day for 30 days a month and earn a monthly salary of 300,000 to 500,000 yen, which is a tough world.
- A gambling event (with a fixed expected value) that can be seen anywhere in Las Vegas, the one with the best expected value is craps (double odds), and the expected value is about 99.5%.
If the expected value falls below 95%, the negative effect of the law of large numbers appears earlier.
When it comes to winning and losing, in horse racing, the act of "holding multiple points" is a way of betting that may not bring much profit even if you win, but the amount of money you lose increases statistically with the "effect of increase in frequency (law of large numbers)", and as a result, the "negative effect" appears sooner.
In real-life gambling, people who make rhythmic pricing like Marie are rare.
As we have seen from the previous discussions, the method of starting with small bets and then betting heavily at the end is a way of betting that has a high chance of achieving large winnings.
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